Choosing a Metatrader Expert Advisor (part 3)
How accurate is the MT4 EA and what is their Win/Lose Ratio.
Now that you already screened out MT4 EA that does not suits you, it is time to compare the remaining MT4 EA in your list. The comparison variable this time would be on performance accuracy and expectancy. When the MT4 EA place a trade, there is a possibility of win or loss. The performance accuracy dictates the percentage of winning trades vs. losing trades.
The first thing that you need to take notice is the scope of the accuracy. You must ensure that there is enough statistical data set to do a correct measurement. A reliable data should have more than 32 data points. In the case of good trading evaluation, get around 50-100 data set. It is vital to have good reliable measurement, as it will show better performance accuracy.
Secondly, look at the average win/loss ratio. For example, an Expert Advisor has done 15 trades and 10 of these were profitable. This shows a good profitability of 66.6%. However, if you increase your data set to 45 by including the next 30 trades, you might get a different percentage. So let just say the Expert Advisor, in the next 30 trades, manage to have 12 profitable trades.
What can you see?
Total accuracy of the Expert Advisoris only to 22/45 or 48.8%. There is a drastic change just by adding more trading data in the accuracy measurement. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the complete performance with larger data. You do not really have to worry of the drastic changes. Having a larger data to calculate the accuracy will show you the accuracy in the end. So do not base the performance accuracy on short run data. The losing or winning streak might not portray the correct standing of the Expert Advisor. It probably means that there was an unexpected event, causing the short run fluctuation.
Now, let us look at the performance expectancy. Whereas accuracy analysis relies on past data and past performance, expectancy is analyzing past data to obtain future performance.
You might be surprised that performance accuracy does not necessarily mean good profitability. By combining both accuracy and expectancy, you will be able to discern the actual performance of the EA.
Best Forex Robot 2010
Posted by Borys F at 1/30/2012 11:54 PM 
Categories: expert advisor
Tags: expert advisor forex robot best forex robot 2010 best forex robot 2011 mt4 ea mt4 expert
Categories: expert advisor
Tags: expert advisor forex robot best forex robot 2010 best forex robot 2011 mt4 ea mt4 expert
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